The highly respected information technology research and advisory company Gartner has made the top 10 enterprise technology predictions for 2012. You can access the presentation and webinar here This blog posting attempts to translate these trends into how it will impact the learning in organisations. This impact assessment is of relevance for anyone and any organisation which delivers learning through technology enabled channels e.g e-Learning, video, mobile learning etc.
The crux of the article is that IT budgets and responsibilities are moving out of the control of IT departments and into the hands of others, thanks to trends such as consumerization and cloud computing which is making centralised controlled of IT difficult. Users are taking more control of the devices they will use, business managers are taking more control of the budgets IT organizations. IT organization will need to co-ordinate those who have the money, those who deliver the services, those who secure the data, and those consumers who demand to set their own pace for use of IT. This decentralisation of control provides the learning function with opportunities to be a bit more responsive to e-learner needs which in the past may have been hampered by the rigid operational frameworks imposed by IT.
In this blog I have tried to assess the impact of these predictions on learning at three different levels and is depicted in the table below
- Impact at the enterprise level i.e how it will impact learning strategy and architecture.
- Impact on the learning design level ie how the design and subsequently the delivery of learning will be impacted.
- Impact on Learners.
In Australia we have an additional impact of the NBN broadband which is likely to enable and accelerate these trend. My previous blog Land of Plenty Broadband – Threat Or Opportunity for the Learning Function ?
covers the impact of the learning function and predicts that the way we design learning will become more complex and sophisticated.
By 2015, mobile application development (AD) projects targeting smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-to-1
Impact analysis – What this prediction is saying is that by 2015 the the usage of mobile devices will substantial outpace PC use. This has major implications in the way we design and deliver learning. In its report on mLearning, eLearning guild sees an increase in percentage of companies that plan to do more mLearning from 38.5% in 2007 to 51% in 2011. It predicts that mLearning via smartphones and tablets will make performance support or just in time learning easier.
This prediction is a signal to learning to build the capabilities and architecture for delivering learning via smartphones and tablets. Considering that we have only recently become proficient in PC based learning. it marks the beginning of another step learning journey.
In 2013, the investment bubble will burst for consumer social networks, and for enterprise social software companies in 2014.
Impact analysis – We have to be a bit careful in interpreting this prediction. What it is not saying is that social networking will become less popular but the investments in social network technology will decrease i.e there is a oversupply of products and vendors in this space which will consolidate. This prediction validates to some extent my own bearish view on the success of employee social networking – “4 reasons why employee social learning will fail at work“.
By 2015, 35% of enterprise IT expenditures for most organizations will be managed outside the IT department’s budget.
Impact analysis – This prediction is about the business taking more control of the IT expenditure and the results its delivers. This trend is natural as the business gets a better understanding of technology the balance of power will shift back to them. For learning professionals this means that business will have more of a say in how the budget for e-learning will be spent.
By 2015, the prices for 80% of cloud services will include a global energy surcharge.
Through 2015, more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to effectively exploit big data for competitive advantage.
Impact analysis – Learning will need to make sure that its data is included in the enterprise data warehouse and it is integrated with other important business data. From a performance support point of view it will to some extent allow the business to correlate learning data to business results.
Through 2016, the financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10% per year, due to the continuing discovery of new vulnerabilities.
By 2015, low-cost cloud services will cannibalize up to 15% of top outsourcing players’ revenue.
By 2016, at least 50% of enterprise email users will rely primarily on a browser, tablet or mobile client, instead of a desktop client.
By 2016, 40% of enterprises will make proof of independent security testing a precondition for using any type of cloud service.
The low impact predictions is unlikely to directly impact learning but must be on your radar.
What are your views on the prediction and my own analysis on learning. Your comments are most welcome.
Gartner’s top tech 2012 predictions: Impact on learning at 3 levels